Nonpartisan Reasoning

Unlike the full Moscow boycott in 1980, current diplomatic boycotts are unlikely to halt expected broadcast and procession of the Games. Although government officials will be precluded from attending, Olympic athletes — even those in protest — have said they still plan to compete. Rule 50 of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) also forbids political protest during the events. Nevertheless, the boycott certainly undermines the Olympics’ potential to bring international prestige to China amid the pandemic. Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of political science at Bucknell University, summarizes the boycott as  ultimately “more symbolic than substantial”.

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Meanwhile, China has accused the US of using the Olympics for “political manipulation” and warned of countermeasures. Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that Beijing could restrict bilateral dialogue, delay visas, or limit the presence of journalists at the Olympics. China’s foreign ministry has already exchanged heated rhetoric with the U.S., stating that “no one cares whether they [the politicians] come or not.” Further, Chen Weihua of a Chinese state media publication has called for China to boycott the Los Angeles 2028 Summer Olympics. Overall, while having no substantial impact on the Games or China’s human rights abuses, the boycott risks raising tensions between the United States and China.

Policy Options

While Chinese representatives have dismissed the move as “irrelevant,” other countries (i.e., New Zealand, Canada, etc.) have followed the U.S.’ lead in announcing they would not send delegations to the games. A powerful signal no doubt, the move is ultimately just that—a signal, with no tangible impact on the ability for China to hold the games. There are a number of alternatives, however, that would have such an impact:

1. Relocation. In July 2021, an effort led by Senator Markley and Rep. McGovern attempted to persuade the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to postpone and relocate the Olympics “if the host government [did] not end its ‘egregious human rights abuses.’” As late as that August, John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence, was calling on the IOC to relocate the games for China’s alleged role in the COVID-19 pandemic. Such efforts, however, have been largely unsuccessful, and the Biden administration’s announcement of its diplomatic boycott signal a begrudging acceptance that the games will be held in Beijing. Of the many paths forward, relocation was the most radical – causing a severe economic loss for China.

2. Sponsorships. With the 2016 Rio de Janeiro games generating “848 million U.S. dollars in sponsorship revenues,” the refusal of typical Olympic sponsors would dampen profitability outlooks for the 2022 Beijing games. To China’s pleasure, such a move has not occurred, as Omega, Coca-Cola, and others move forward with their sponsorship programs.
   

3. Full Boycott. The Biden administration has remained consistent that “the athletes of Team USA have [their] full support,” only ever genuinely considering a diplomatic boycott. And for good reason, because while a full boycott would certainly tangibly impact the validity of the games, it would be a dangerous retelling of history. Of the six past boycotts of Olympic games, the U.S. has been party to one – the 1980 games held in Moscow. A coalition of “more than 60 nations” refused to compete in the games following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and this Cold War-era sentiment is not one the Biden administration should readily embrace. 
   

But the Olympics is far from the only way for the U.S. to condemn Chinese human rights abuses, and attempts by the Biden administration to frame them as such are done to find an acceptable middle ground. It seems the Biden administration has found a way to evade accusations of silence on issues of human rights without resorting to the more nuclear options of forced relocation or full boycotts. Nevertheless, the impact is temporary, as “Olympic boycotts [historically] tend not to work” and “[have] little geopolitical impact.”