I. Executive Summary

This brief examines the changing international and domestic dynamics due to the U.S.’s arrest and seizure of Nicolás Maduro. It will explore pressing questions about historical precedents, key players, and reactions. 

II. Overview

A. Recent Context

Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have increasingly risen due to sanctions and U.S. military actions targeting Venezuelan oil operations, including attacks and seizures of ships in 2025. These actions were meant to enforce sanctions but were seen by Venezuela as aggressive and illegal. The arrest happened after U.S. forces intercepted a vessel connected to Venezuela during one of these enforcement operations. Venezuelan officials strongly condemned the move, calling it piracy and a violation of international law. In simple terms, this situation can be summarized as the U.S. cracking down on Venezuela’s oil trade, which escalated an already tense relationship.

B. Extended Background

The U.S. has had a long and shifting relationship with Venezuela, rooted in oil, geography, and regional influence. Things changed dramatically with the rise of Hugo Chávez in 1999, whose anti-U.S. stance and ideological alliances with American adversaries disrupted decades of cooperation. Following Chavez, Nicolás Maduro assumed power. Under his leadership, the country saw rapid authoritarian decline, violent crackdowns on dissent, and two widely condemned elections in 2018 and 2024, both tarnished by fraud, voter suppression, and disqualification of opposition candidates. The U.S. and several allies refused to recognize the results, viewing Maduro as an illegitimate ruler. In response, U.S. sanctions expanded over time, starting with targeted measures in the 2000s and evolving into sweeping restrictions on Venezuela’s financial and oil sectors by 2019. While sanctions aimed to pressure the regime, they also worsened the humanitarian crisis, as overcompliance by financial instituions restricted access to even exempted essentials like food and medicine.

In 2020, the conflict intensified when the U.S. charged Maduro with narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, accusing him of using cocaine smuggling as a political weapon. As a result, the lines between foreign policy and criminal prosecution became blurred, leading to complicated diplomatic efforts. Then, this year, the U.S. launched a military operation that led to Maduro’s capture, citing both drug-related charges and regional security threats. The intervention marked a major shift in U.S. strategy and drew international criticism over its legality, lack of congressional approval, and the risks posed to civilians. Now, with Maduro removed, Venezuela is facing an uncertain transition.

 III. Policy Problem

A. Current Stances

The current U.S. administration argues that the arrest of Nicolás Maduro is legally justified. This is because it views him not as a legitimate head of state, but as a criminal figure accused of drug trafficking and terrorism who lost democratic legitimacy after Venezuela’s disputed elections. From this perspective, the action is framed as a law-enforcement matter rather than an attack on a sovereign government. Within the United States, however, there is a clear partisan divide: many Republicans support the arrest as a tough stance against an authoritarian leader, while many Democrats question its legality and warn that it bypasses Congress and undermines international law. The United Nations has taken a more cautious and critical tone, emphasizing respect for state sovereignty and due process and warning that forcibly arresting a sitting president without international authorization sets a dangerous precedent. Countries such as Venezuela, Russia, and China strongly reject the arrest, describing it as an illegal violation of sovereignty and an example of U.S. interference, while defending the principle that governments should not be changed through external force. Beyond the immediate question of whether Maduro’s arrest is legitimate, these reactions reveal deeper disagreements about Venezuela’s past and future: some see Maduro as an authoritarian obstacle whose removal could open the door to democratic reform, while others argue that foreign intervention only deepens instability and that Venezuela’s political future must be decided internally, regardless of how flawed the current government may be.

‍B. Notable Stakeholders

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro affects many groups both directly and indirectly. Venezuelan citizens are most impacted, as many already face economic hardship and uncertainty; the situation may increase instability, disrupt access to basic goods, and create fear about violence or political chaos. Some Venezuelans see the arrest as a chance for change, while others view it as a threat to national sovereignty. Venezuelan officials and security forces are also affected as they must decide where their loyalties lie and whether they face prosecution or exile. U.S. troops and personnel involved face physical risk and prolonged deployment, along with political and legal scrutiny at home. Oil companies and energy markets are impacted because Venezuela’s oil production and exports could be disrupted, affecting investment and fuel prices. Agribusiness and international businesses may face supply-chain disruptions and legal uncertainty. Neighboring countries could experience increased migration if instability grows, and humanitarian organizations may struggle to deliver aid. Overall, the consequences extend beyond Venezuela, affecting regional stability, global markets, and international relations.

IV. References

Kongkunakornkul, Pasit. “Mapping Escalating Us Pressure on Venezuela.” Reuters, December 12, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-VENEZUELA/MAPS/lgvdqxnenpo/#mapping-us-strikes-against-suspected-drug-boats.

Finley, Ben, Konstantin Toropin, and Regina Garcia Cano. “A Timeline of U.S. Military Escalation against Venezuela Leading to Maduro’s Capture.” PBS, January 3, 2026. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/a-timeline-of-u-s-military-escalation-against-venezuela-leading-to-maduros-capture.

Evans, Gareth. “Spies, Drones and Blowtorches: How the US Captured Maduro.” BBC, January 3, 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdred61epg4o.

Jeyaretnam, Miranda, and Chad de Guzman. “What’s Happening with the U.S. And Venezuela, Explained.” TIME. Time, January 8, 2026. https://time.com/7344628/us-venezuela-trump-maduro-oil-drugs-war-explainer-questions-answered/.

Justice, U.S. Department of. “Nicolás Maduro Moros and 14 Current and Former Venezuelan Officials Charged with Narco-Terrorism, Corruption, Drug Trafficking and Other Criminal Charges.” Justice.gov, March 26, 2020. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/nicol-s-maduro-moros-and-14-current-and-former-venezuelan-officials-charged-narco-terrorism.

“US Actions in Venezuela ‘Constitute a Dangerous Precedent’: Guterres | UN News.” United Nations, January 3, 2026. https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/01/1166698.