I. Executive Summary

The death of Senator Lindsey Graham created both electoral and policy uncertainty in Washington and South Carolina. His absence immediately affected an open Senate seat that had previously been considered politically stable while also removing a prominent Republican advocate for assertive American foreign policy. Graham had developed relationships with President Trump, Ukrainian officials, and lawmakers from both parties that allowed him to influence debates surrounding Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and U.S. national security policy. The future of Congress and American foreign policy hinges on Graham’s replacement and whether the foreign policy initiatives he championed can continue without his personal influence.

II. Overview 

A. Pointed Summary

• Senator Lindsey Graham’s death created an unexpected vacancy in South Carolina’s Senate delegation and removed one of Congress’s most influential Republican voices on foreign policy. His sister, Darline Graham, was appointed to temporarily fill the seat while competing in the special election to succeed him.
• Graham’s death raised questions about the future of several foreign policy efforts he had helped advance, particularly U.S. support for Ukraine and sanctions targeting Russia. Graham had acted as an important intermediary between Ukraine, Congress, and the Trump administration, leaving lawmakers to determine how those responsibilities would continue without him.
• One of Graham’s final major legislative efforts was a bipartisan sanctions package targeting Russia and major purchasers of Russian oil and gas. Following his death, lawmakers from both parties continued advancing the legislation, with more than 60 senators supporting the proposal and congressional leaders considering it part of Graham’s foreign policy legacy.

B. Relevance

Graham’s death affects policy and politics  far beyond the special election for his Senate seat. His role in negotiating bipartisan legislation and maintaining communication between the Trump administration, Congress, and Ukraine made him a central figure in several ongoing foreign policy debates. The response to his absence may demonstrate whether these policies were dependent primarily on Graham’s individual political relationships or whether Congress can institutionalize them through bipartisan legislation and new leadership. At the same time, South Carolina's special election provides voters with an opportunity to determine who will represent the state after the temporary appointment, linking Graham’s death to both national policy and electoral politics.

III. History

A. Current Stances

President Donald Trump offered his condolences a day afterwards via his social media site, Truth Social, saying that Graham was “one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known.”  Former diplomat Paul Foldi highlighted Graham as “irreplaceable” due to his endorsement of an “engaged” U.S. foreign policy stance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke highly of Graham, saying that Graham “was here with our people when it was most needed” and that “Lindsey was a true defender of freedom and the values that make our world safer.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte spoke of Graham as a “powerful advocate for America” who believed in NATO and was working to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. However, Dan Baer, the former State Department official under the Obama administration, argues that Graham’s foreign policy record will not be viewed as “black and white.” Baer argues that this is due to Graham’s support in advocating for President Trump to attack Iran, which has resulted in an ongoing conflict.² Graham was a fierce proponent of limiting Iranian nuclear programs, and commended Trump's decision to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. Iranian state television announced Graham’s death during a broadcast where the anchor called him a “warmongering and anti-Iranian U.S. senator…”

 B. Tried Policy

Following Graham’s death, the Governor of South Carolina, Henry McMaster, appointed Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, to serve out the remainder of her brother's term. However, Darline confirmed to Fox News host Sean Hannity on Monday that she will run for a full term to fill her brother’s Senate seat. President Donald Trump has emphatically endorsed and encouraged Darline to run for her brother's seat, writing on his social media site, “Darline, who comes from an absolutely incredible family … has my Complete and Total Endorsement in the Special Election for U.S. Senate in South Carolina,” and “SHE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN. RUN, DARLINE, RUN!” Darline has no previous political experience and will also be running against other Republican representatives like Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, who have expressed their desire to bid for the seat. ²

IV. Policy Problem

A. Stakeholders

Questions have arisen on whether or not Graham’s Ukraine foreign policy measures will withstand. Scott Anderson of the Brookings ‌Institution pointed out that Graham’s death is a “big loss for Ukraine” due to Graham’s “behind-the-scenes influence” when it came to international advocacy from the Republican Party. Graham, who was a close friend of President Trump, was an advocate for Ukraine and a close ally of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Last year, Graham was a key player in arranging a critical mineral deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.¹ Graham also served as a liaison for Ukraine and the Trump administration, advocating for military assistance and legislation to sanction Russia.  

B. Risks of Indifference

Ukraine and its supporters are worried that Graham’s death will greatly affect the Trump administration’s commitment to Ukrainian bills and security assistance. Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council, explains that “Ukraine has lost an advocate that had the president’s ear.” Along with this, several other pro-Ukraine lawmakers are leaving Congress in January. Absent a close ally linking Trump to Kyiv, there remains a question of favorability towards Ukrainian assistance. ⁶

C. Nonpartisan Reasoning

Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science of Coastal Carolina University, and Christopher A. Cooper, Professor of Political Science of Western Carolina University, highlighted Graham’s efforts of cross-party cooperation which included a legislative climate change measure in conjunction with Democratic Senators John Kerry and Joe Lieberman.  However, even those who viewed Graham as a “principled patriot” were disappointed when it came to Graham’s “moral flexibility” as described by Dan Baer. The perception of Graham’s moral flexibility had to do with issues relating to Trump’s second term which included questioning the value of NATO, the prospective idea of using military power to seize Greenland, and praising Vladimir Putin. ²

V. Policy Options 

1. The bipartisan sanctions package Graham helped negotiate, which would impose secondary tariffs of up to 100 percent on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas, has already cleared the 60-cosponsor threshold needed to overcome a filibuster, and Republican leadership has begun “hotlining” the bill to gauge floor readiness. Congress could use this window, while the bill carries the added political weight of a tribute to Graham and while President Trump has signaled openness to signing it, to bring it directly to the floor via unanimous consent or attach it to a must-pass vehicle before the end-of-year legislative calendar and midterm recess absorb floor time. The chief risk is that the tribute framing fades as Congress moves further from Graham’s death, and that unresolved Democratic concerns about handing broad tariff discretion to the executive branch could still furnish an objection that blocks floor consideration indefinitely.

2. Rather than treating Graham’s “behind-the-scenes influence” with Kyiv and the Trump administration as a personal relationship that disappears without him, Senate leadership could formally delegate his negotiating and liaison responsibilities to members already active on the sanctions package, such as Senator Blumenthal, who is currently shepherding the bill. Reframing the role as a committee function rather than an individual one would reduce the risk that assistance legislation stalls simply because no single member has both the relationships and the standing to broker it. The tradeoff is that no successor is likely to carry Graham’s specific access to President Trump, so this option manages institutional risk without fully replacing the political capital that made his advocacy effective. 

3. Under South Carolina Code § 7-11-55, a Senate vacancy created by the death of a nominated candidate triggers a special primary within roughly a month, with filing, the primary, and any runoff compressed into late July and August ahead of the November general.4 State lawmakers or state party rules could build in a longer minimum window — for example, 60 to 90 days from vacancy to primary — when a Senate vacancy this close to a general election arises, without eliminating the special-election requirement itself. This would directly address the risk this brief identifies elsewhere: that a sprint primary compresses vetting and fundraising and can let a weaker nominee emerge. The cost is a longer stretch represented only by an appointed placeholder senator, which raises its own accountability questions given that the appointee is not required to face voters before the primary

VI. Conclusion

Graham’s death leaves Republicans navigating compounding vulnerabilities heading into the November midterm. With Senator McConnell already absent due to hospitalization, the GOP’s already narrow Senate majority is now under additional strain - and a seat that was never considered competitive has suddenly become uncertain. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat in South Carolina was 1998, but Graham’s death forces a sprint primary that compresses candidate vetting, limits fundraising time, and opens the door for a weaker nominee to emerge against Democrat Annie Andrews. How Republicans manage the appointment, the primary, and the legislative gaps left by Graham's absence will serve as an early test of the party's cohesion ahead of what is already shaping up to be a contentious midterm cycle.

VII. Acknowledgement

The Institute for Youth in Policy wishes to acknowledge Sarah Hutchison for editing this policy brief.

VIII. References

1. Cooper, Christopher A, and Gibbs Knotts. 2026. “How Lindsey Graham’s Keen Ability to Read the Moment Propelled Him to Political Relevance for 3 Decades.” The Conversation. July 14, 2026. https://theconversation.com/how-lindsey-grahams-keen-ability-to-read-the-moment-propelled-him-to-political-relevance-for-3-decades-287471.
2. Davies, Emily. 2026. “Lindsey Graham’s Sister, Darline Graham, Says She Will Run to Succeed Him.” The New York Times, July 20, 2026. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/us/politics/darline-graham-south-carolina-senate-race.html.
3. FITSNews. 2026. “2026 Senate Special: Election Dates and Ground Rules - FITSNews.” FITSNews. July 12, 2026. https://www.fitsnews.com/2026/07/12/2026-senate-special-election-dates-and-ground-rules/.
4. Geir Moulson, and Nicholas Riccardi. 2026. “Lindsey Graham Spent Decades Promoting Aggressive American Role.” AP News. July 12, 2026. https://apnews.com/article/lindsey-graham-death-reactions-30c9758bfc124c30e8e4db0e4dd719e2.
5. Jeyaretnam, Miranda. 2026. “How Lindsey Graham’s Senate Seat Will Be Filled—and What It Means for the GOP.” TIME. Time. July 13, 2026. https://time.com/article/2026/07/13/lindsey-graham-senate-seat-vacancy-congress-gop-replacement/.
6. Jimison, Robert, Zachary Woolfe, and Amelia Nierenberg. 2026. “Lindsey Graham, Republican Senator and Trump Ally, Dies from ‘Sudden Illness.’” Nytimes. The New York Times. July 12, 2026. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/12/us/politics/lindsey-graham-dead.html.
7. McDaniel, Eric. 2026. “Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Trump Ally and Foreign Policy Hawk, Dies At 71.” NPR. July 12, 2026. https://www.npr.org/2026/07/12/nx-s1-5890790/us-sen-lindsey-graham-dies.
8. Nichols, Hans. 2026. “Scoop: Russia Sanctions Bill Hits 60 Co-Sponsors.” Axios. July 16, 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/07/16/russia-sanctions-bill-lindsey-graham-senate.
9. PBS News. 2026a. “Lindsey Graham Remembered for a Vision of American Foreign Policy That’s Fading in Washington.” PBS News. July 12, 2026a. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/lindsey-graham-remembered-for-a-vision-of-american-foreign-policy-thats-fading-in-washington.
10. 2026b. “‘I Am in.’ Darline Graham Says She Will Run for a Full Term in Lindsey Graham’S Senate Seat.” PBS News. July 20, 2026b. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/im-in-darline-graham-says-she-will-run-for-a-full-term-in-lindsey-grahams-senate-seat.
11. Zengerle, Patricia, Max Hunder, and Andrea Shalal. 2026. “Can US Senator Lindsey Graham’S Ukraine Initiatives Survive Without Him?.” Reuters, July 14, 2026. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/can-us-senator-lindsey-grahams-ukraine-initiatives-survive-without-him-2026-07-14/.