Executive Summary

A ceasefire between Israel and Palestine was brokered, mediated by Egypt, after 11 days of violence sparked by tensions in East Jerusalem. The agreement includes halting airstrikes and rocket attacks, reopening border crossings for humanitarian aid, and easing restrictions on Gaza. This brief will explore its immediate impacts.

Overview

On January 15, 2025, Israel and Hamas reached a three-phase deal for a ceasefire in Gaza that took effect on Sunday at 8:30 a.m. local time. It ended 15 months of bloodshed with the release of hostages, withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. The implementation of the agreement will be guaranteed by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.During the first phase of the ceasefire, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women, children, and men over 50. Notably, two American hostages, Keith Siegal and Sagui Dekel-Chen, will be released, as well as the two very young children of the Bibas family. Israel will also release Palestinian hostages, with the total number of Palestinians released depending on the Israeli hostages released, and could be between 990 and 1,650 Palestinian detainees. Furthermore, the deal requires 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza every day of the ceasefire. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed that the “priority now must be to ease the tremendous suffering caused by this conflict.” Finally, within the first phase, the Israeli military will not fully withdraw from Gaza. It will begin withdrawing from the Netzarim corridor and will maintain a security buffer zone within Gaza along its perimeter.Negotiations of the second phase of the ceasefire will begin by the 16th day of phase one and are expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, including Israeli male soldiers, a permanent ceasefire, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers. Israeli officials are claiming that this ceasefire is not an agreement to end the war while Hamas still exists within Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netynhau and his Likud party insist that the second phase must exclude the remaining Hamas leadership from governing the Gaza Strip. With Hamas being unlikely to agree, a long-term ceasefire could collapse. 

If a second phase can successfully be negotiated, a third phase is expected to include the return of all remaining dead bodies and the start of Gaza’s reconstruction, supervised by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.

History

Context

The Gaza Strip, also known as Gaza, is one of two Palestinian territories and is currently under Israeli occupation. With a population of around two million confined to a 141km² area, it is one of the top 20 most densely populated territories in the world.From the 16th century, it was part of the Ottoman Empire, and in 1917 was conquered by the British and made part of Mandatory Palestine. Within the 20th century, Gaza was passed between Britain, Egyptian, and Israeli military rule, which is where the roots of the current conflict lie.During the British Mandate, tensions between Jewish Palestinians (a mix of those who had been living in Palestine continuously and those who had recently immigrated as part of the Zionist movement beginning in the late 1880s) and Arab Palestinians increased. The discontent surrounded the growing Zionist demands and the UN Partition Plan for Palestine which would have allotted more land to a new Jewish state.In 1947, there was a civil war, and in 1948, the British Mandate ended. With other Arab nations joining in, the 1948 Arab-Israeli War was brutal and caused 895 deaths for those on the Jewish National Council’s side and 991 on the Arab Higher Committee’s. At this time, British troops largely withdrew, allowing the violence to fester as several massacres were perpetrated. By the end of the war, the newly established State of Israel had taken 78% of Mandatory Palestine, and an estimated minimum of 13,000 fighters and civilians on both sides had died. Part of Mandatory Palestine was also absorbed into Jordan.

During the war and its aftermath, 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes in what is referred to as the “Nakba.” Tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians sought refuge in Gaza, which had been recently seized by Egypt. Until 1967, Gazans were under Egyptian control with their movement limited, though some formed “fedayeen” groups and launched attacks into Israel.

In 1967, Egypt announced they would be re-closing a port which Israel had previously fought to open, leading to an Israeli strike by air and land. Jordan, Syria, and Egypt fought back in the Six-Day War, ending with over 15,000 Arab fatalities and fewer than 1,000 Israeli ones. Additionally, 15 UN peacekeepers were killed in Israeli strikes, and around 300,000 Palestinians were displaced from the West Bank (the second Palestinian territory).

By 1971, the Gaza Strip was fragmented for easy control. In 1973, an Arab coalition attacked Israel and began the Yom-Kippur War, also known as the Ramadan War, as it occurred in the midst of both holidays. After an Israeli defeat, both sides accepted a ceasefire, but the US secretly permitted Israel to breach it and continue attacks. The final victory of the war was by the Arabs, leading to emotional shifts for each side and eventually the Camp David Accords. 

The second document of the Camp David Accords led to Egypt becoming the first Arab country to recognize Israel, while the first document was contested and deemed invalid for seeking to define a future for the Palestinian territories without any Palestinian or U.N. representatives present. Particularly, while it sought to establish Palestinian autonomy, it did not mention the future of Jerusalem, nor the potential for a Palestinian right to return or self-determination, two concepts within the U.N. Charter and resolutions that remain unfulfilled.

Israeli troops remained in Gaza to guard newly built settlements (which comprised 20% of Gaza and are considered illegal under international law) and administer the region, leading to resentment. Water scarcity, prohibitions and taxes on agriculture and exports intended to encourage Israeli growers over Palestinians, and general mistreatment stoked these resentments. 

In 1987, the First Intifada began, a series of protests, violence, and civil disobedience by Palestinians in the occupied territory and in Israel. In response, 80,000 Israeli soldiers were deployed, using methods that were internationally frowned upon, and killed over 1,000 Palestinians, including 240 children. At this time, Hamas was created, based in Gaza, and dedicated to the destruction of Israel. It became a rival to the Fatah party that led the Palestine Liberation Organization.

In 1993, the Oslo Accords were signed and allowed Palestinians semi-autonomy in Gaza and a city in the West Bank, reigniting dreams of statehood, though Israel continued to build settlements in the territories.

From 2000-2005, the Second Intifada occurred, ending with Israel evacuating from Gazan settlements while completely isolating Gaza. in 2006, Hamas, which is recognized by some as a terrorist organization, gained control of the government. Countries like the US and Israel halted aid and employment for Gazans, citing security concerns and ensuring that the Gazan economy stagnated. For 20 years, settler violence and apartheid policies within Israel continued tensions, as did attacks by Hamas in 2014 and air strikes into Gaza from Israel.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched rocket and paraglider attacks into Israel, the first such incursion since the 1948 war. Somewhere from 1,100-1,200 people were killed as a result of the attacks and the Hannibal Directive (an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) procedure). 3,400 civilians and soldiers were wounded. Around 250 people were taken hostage, including 30 children. Hamas and its allies have claimed these hostages were taken in order to be exchanged for Palestinian political prisoners.

Israel responded with heavier air strikes than ever, launching a ground invasion, and blockading Gaza (including preventing aid). They also ordered Palestinian civilians to evacuate in advance of further attacks on several occasions, heightening the humanitarian crisis. By June 30, 2024, according to The Lancet, around 60,000 Gazans had been killed by traumatic injuries (which does not include deaths from other causes such as starvation and lack of healthcare), and 59.1% of those killed were women, children, or people over 65. Some have called Israel’s actions in Gaza since 2023 a genocide. Israel maintains that its goal is the eradication of Hamas, which it considers a terrorist organization in the way of peace. 

By the time discussions of the 2025 ceasefire began, Israel and Hamas had been at war for over 400 days.

Tried Policy

The path toward a ceasefire has been tumultuous, unpredictable, and fraught. With efforts and calls for a ceasefire beginning shortly after October 7, 2023, tensions have varied dramatically, with significant numbers of ceasefire attempts, and little tangible progress in the end. The first ceasefire came on November 21, 2023, after a month packed with tense discussions and political maneuvering. The truce lasted for around a week and involved the freeing of prisoners on both sides, with tensions immediately escalating once again at the conclusion of the ceasefire, with no larger conclusion or agreement reached. The next agreement was reached in May 2024, detailing a conclusion of a more permanent ceasefire and end to hostilities, with a multi-pronged plan towards remediation and an end to the conflicts. This plan would have entailed first, a release of prisoners from both sides, followed by the Israeli forces retreating from Gaza. While celebrated across the globe, Israel soon reneged on their side of the bargain, invading the Rafah area of Gaza and continuing hostilities, signifying that they were not happy with the terms of the deal. 

Late May carried some hope of a ceasefire, but following the trend set by prior ceasefire outcomes, this possibility vanished in the face of hostilities and discontent with the terms of the agreement. Little progress was made in the latter half of 2024, with hostilities and violence continuing and breaking out further with heightened conflict between Hezbollah, a Lebanese paramilitary group, and Israel. The conflict began to stem from a variety of different fronts and regions, bringing the war to the forefront of many more civilian’s lives.

In late 2024, the hope of the most recent ceasefire began to kindle, with talks involving Biden’s officials, some members of Trump’s incoming administration team, and Israeli officials.

Ramifications

Stakeholders

• Palestinians beginning to receive a steady flow of aid and respite from the violence of the past years.
• Palestinian, Israeli, and other hostages/detainees returning to their homes and reuniting with loved ones.
• Neighboring nations receiving a respite from the spillover of violence, such as the Israeli-Lebanese fighting.
• International governments taking notes on the de-escalation, if lasting, of this issue, and the Gaza reconstruction efforts.

Effects

One main effect is likely to be Palestinian freedom and autonomy. With the exit of the Israeli military from Gaza, residents are likely to face fewer obstacles to mobility and economic growth. For example, the Gaza blockade will be lifted, meaning more employment opportunities will be possible. It also immediately means that aid can enter, preventing death by starvation or injuries. A challenge to mobility, however, is that Israeli checkpoints at the exits of Gaza will likely be maintained for some time, continuing the treatment of Palestinians as inferior or as threats. New checkpoints have also been established in the West Bank by the IDF since the ceasefire began.

Additionally, the Israeli exit and Gaza reconstruction will allow for the re-introduction of the Palestinian statehood discussion. However, with the continued existence of Hamas, Israel will likely not seriously humor such discussions.

A second effect of this ceasefire is less violence. Both nations will return to their status quo prior to October 7, and potentially advance to a more peaceful relationship depending on how reconstruction and negotiations proceed. The status quo will mean Israelis face little day-to-day violence, though that is not necessarily true for Palestinians. Israeli air strikes and raids in the West Bank show no signs of stopping soon.

Another angle is the international policy implications of the ceasefire. If successful, it will act as a model for de-escalation and reconstruction efforts in places like Sudan and Lebanon, where recent or ongoing civil wars as well as the influence of foreign powers have decimated populations and regions. It can demonstrate how to balance demands, pace changes, and communicate externally. However, the issues between Israel and Palestine are numerous and unique, so patterns cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other conflicts.

Conclusions

After many long months of conflict, destruction, and tragedy, a ceasefire has been called between Israel and Hamas. While it is an official deal that was the byproduct of work from many entities, the current state of affairs is still fragile—civilians are by no means reassured of their safety in the coming hours, even as more humanitarian aid keeps coming in. Moving forward, conflicts like this will no doubt keep arising, and this agreement between Israel and Hamas amidst much foreign involvement sets an important precedent as peace continues to be the first priority.

Acknowledgment

The Institute for Youth in Policy wishes to acknowledge Anagha Nagesh, Nolan Ezzet and other contributors for developing and maintaining the Policy Department within the Institute.

References

1. Ali, Marium and Hanna Duggal. “Israel-Hamas ceasefire: What’s left of Gaza and its people?” Al Jazeera. January 16, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/16/israel-hamas-ceasefire-whats-left-of-gaza-and-its-people.
2. Al Jazeera Staff. “Deaths from Israeli attacks in Gaza undercounted by 41 percent, study finds.” Al Jazeera. January 10, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/10/deaths-from-israeli-attacks-in-gaza-undercounted-by-41-percent-study-finds.
3. Al Jazeera Staff. “Timeline: The Path to the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal in Gaza.” Al Jazeera. Accessed January 19, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/1/19/timeline-the-path-to-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-in-gaza.
4. Chughtai, Alia and Mohammed Haddad. “Israel-Palestine conflict: A brief history in maps and charts.” Al Jazeera. November 27, 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/27/palestine-and-israel-brief-history-maps-and-charts.
5. “Fresh evacuation orders and airstrikes highlight ongoing insecurity in Gaza.” UN News. January 2, 2025. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1158701.
6. “Gaza Ceasefire Could Boost Aid Deliveries to 600 Trucks per Day: WHO.” UN News. January 17, 2025. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159116.
7. “Gaza Strip | Definition, History, Facts, & Map.” Britannica. Accessed January 20, 2025. https://www.britannica.com/place/Gaza-Strip.
8. Huggard, Kevin, and Natan Sachs. “Gaza Ceasefire: What the Israel-Hamas Agreement Means.” Brookings. January 17, 2025. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/gaza-ceasefire-what-the-israel-hamas-agreement-means/.
9. “IDF said to establish dozens more West Bank checkpoints during ceasefire, clogging roads.” Times of Israel. January 22, 2025. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-establish-dozens-more-west-bank-checkpoints-during-ceasefire-clogging-roads/.
10. “Israel and the Palestinians: History of the conflict explained.” BBC. Accessed January 20, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-44124396.
11. “Israel-Hamas Live Updates: Netanyahu Warns That Ceasefire Is Temporary.” NBC News. January 18, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-ceasefire-live-updates-rcna188245.
12. “Israeli-Palestinian Conflict | Global Conflict Tracker.” Council on Foreign Relations. Accessed January 22, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict.
13. “Israel-Palestine: Everything you need to know.” Vox. Accessed January 20, 2025. https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18079996/israel-palestine-conflict-guide-explainer.
14. Marx, Willem. “Israel and Hamas Reach a Gaza Ceasefire Agreement.” NPR. January 15, 2025. https://www.npr.org/2025/01/15/g-s1-42883/ceasefire-israel-hamas-gaza-hostage-release.
15. Marx, Willem, Jerome Socolovsky, Kat Lonsdorf, Michele Kelemen, Greg Myre, and James Hider. “Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas Will Go into Effect Sunday Morning, Qatar Officials Say.” PBS News. January 18, 2025. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ceasefire-between-israel-and-hamas-will-go-into-effect-sunday-morning-qatar-officials-say.
16. Mills, Andrew, Nidal Al-Mughrabi, and James Mackenzie. “Israel Set to Approve Gaza Ceasefire, Hostage Deal, Netanyahu’s Office Says.” Reuters, January 17, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-holds-off-approving-gaza-ceasefire-us-says-deal-is-track-2025-01-17/
17. “Origins and Evolution of the Palestine Problem.” UN. Accessed January 20, 2025. https://www.un.org/unispal/history2/origins-and-evolution-of-the-palestine-problem/.
18. Reuters Staff. “A brief history of Gaza’s centuries of war.” Reuters. April 4, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/brief-history-gazas-centuries-war-2023-10-13/.
19. Reuters Staff. “A brief history of Gaza’s 75 years of woe.” Reuters. October 11, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/brief-history-gazas-75-years-woe-2023-10-10/.
20. Reuters Staff. “Gaza war: what is the history of the Israel-Palestinian conflict.” Reuters. December 17, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-is-history-israel-palestinian-conflict-2024-12-17/.
21. Reuters Staff. “Two American Hostages Are on List to Be Released under Gaza Deal, Source Says.” Reuters, January 15, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/two-american-hostages-are-list-be-released-under-gaza-deal-source-says-2025-01-15/.
22. Suleiman, Oman. “Martin Luther King Jr would have called it a genocide, too.” Middle East Eye. January 20, 2025. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/martin-luther-king-jr-would-have-called-it-genocide-too.
23. “Timeline: Key Events in the Israel-Arab and Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.” American Jewish Committee. Accessed January 20, 2025. https://www.ajc.org/IsraelConflictTimeline.