Overview

The 2024 elections were swept, across the board, by red victories: Donald Trump won the presidency, Republicans gained four Senate seats and the majority, Republicans won eight of the eleven state gubernatorial elections, and Republicans are continuing to defend their House majority, though fifteen races are yet to be called. There were discrepancies between the results of the presidential election and the congressional or gubernatorial ones, with many states that did not vote for Kamala Harris voting in Democrat congress members by large margins. This year has raised questions on the accuracy of polls and other traditional methods, with some beginning to favor election betting instead.

Presidential

A. Results

‍The 2024 Presidential election was won by former President Donald Trump after he won the swing state of Wisconsin early on Wednesday morning.  Later that evening, Vice President Kamala Harris delivered her concession speech at her alma mater, Howard University, sharing a message of hope for the future.  Earlier in the day, the president-elect declared victory in his home state of Florida, surrounded by jubilant supporters. 

‍B. History‍

Nationally, Harris held a one-point lead. As of the Times/ Sienna polls from Oct 25 to Nov 2, Trump was polling four points up in Arizona, whereas Harris led by three points in Nevada and North Carolina and up one point in Georgia. Across the seven swing states, polling  discrepancies from the major polls show that neither candidate has a meaningful edge. According to a survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, there are considerable concerns about the fragility of the USA's democracy with 4 in 10 registered voters saying that they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn election results. One in three are similarly concerned about legal attempts by local or state officials to stop the results from being finalized. Harris accepted the election results in a concession speech, with Trump delivering a victory speech in Florida. 

C. Effects

This election is unique, as President-elect Trump is someone the American citizenry has seen in office before, but his re-election presidency is likely to be unique in several other ways. 

Shortly after AP News  called Trump’s victory, stock exchanges surged, with investors expecting a business-friendly administration during which the former president plans to enact tax cuts, especially for corporations. As Trump repeated frequently during his campaign, he also plans to reinstate tariffs, specifically imposing a 10% to 20% tariff on imports from China. He has emphasized cutting taxes and deregulation in an effort to spur economic growth, innovation, and employment.

Beyond economics, the former president has called for mass deportation of illegal immigrants and has extended his immigration policy to make attempts to curtail legal immigration. Analysts from the Brookings Institute expect that net migration to the US will decline significantly during his second term, which may obstruct the supply of labor the US gets from foreign nationals at a time when many baby boomers are retiring. Trump has claimed that he will invoke the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, one of the famous Alien and Sedition Acts, to allow the US government to deport people who are suspected of being criminals. 

Trump has made it clear during his year of campaigning that he believes that US foreign policy needs to be shifted. During the former president's first term, his “America First” policies saw him withdraw from major international agreements, antagonize allies, and negotiate with traditional adversaries. He has stated that he plans to pull the US out of the Paris climate accords for a second time, which would mean the US would, again, leave the most global agreement to curb climate change. Alongside a push to curb the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax credits and subsidies for electric vehicles, the president has made it clear that he plans to overhaul the previous administration’s clean energy initiatives. 

He has been uniquely involved in technologies such as cybersecurity and AI, framing it as an extension of the arms trade with China. The 2024 Republican Party platform calls for repealing current president Joe Bidens’s restrictive executive order on AI. 

During this term, Donald Trump will have to face two novel issues: the dramatic escalation of the war in Gaza and the war in Ukraine. Trump plans to continue the US's history of support for Israel, coming after his past term in which he oversaw the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization deals. Regarding Ukraine, Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could quickly resolve the war and does not plan to give additional aid to Ukraine. 

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Senate

A. Results

The 33 Class 1 seats were open, along with a special election to fill the remainder of Ben Sasse’s Nebraska seat. The California seat currently held by Laphonza Butler after the death of Diane Feinstein was also included, with the winner (Adam Schiff) joining the Senate for both the end of this term and the entirety of the next term. Republicans flipped the upper chamber, gaining four seats—Ohio, Montana, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania—that were previously blue.

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B. History

Prior to this election, the Senate had a Democrat majority, with Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote and four Independents (Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, who both retired this cycle, as well as Bernie Sanders and Angus King) who caucused with the Democratic Party. The majority leader was Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York. Senate priorities included recovery from COVID-19 and the economy, infrastructure and clean energy, healthcare, immigration, law enforcement, and competition with China. The 118th Congress was considered by many to be one of the most unproductive.

The Cook Political Report had forecasted Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin being toss-ups in this election. It also noted Arizona and Nevada as having slight Democratic leanings, and Montana, Nebraska, and Texas as having a slight Republican lean. West Virginia, which did not have an incumbent running this year, was listed as having solid Republican prospects. In polls by 538, most races looked quite tight even in the last few days, especially Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania. The exceptions were Massachusetts, Vermont, California, New York, and Washington, which predicted high Democrat margins. Out of 1,000 simulations, 92% predicted a Republican majority.

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C. Effects

With both a Republican president and a Republican Senate, conservative policies will likely pass with more ease. Additionally, according to AP News, “Senate leadership has been working with Trump and his team to quickly set up his administration and implement his agenda,” which will further the reach and speed of the upcoming Congress in contrast with the Congress of Trump’s first presidency. This will allow Trump to easily confirm his judicial and executive nominees, among other ramifications. 

The main issues that the GOP has promised to focus on include taxes, energy, immigration, and crime. Republicans are likely to use budget reconciliations to manage congressional spending, as the increasing debt of Joe Biden’s presidency has been a major talking point by the party. Additionally, transgender rights, particularly with regards to healthcare and sports, have been greatly attacked in both speeches and laws across the country by Republicans, which is expected to continue, though it may be somewhat halted by LGBTQ+ candidates’ victories in the House.

The Senate victory by Republicans will, generally, provide a ramp for Trump and the largely Trump-aligned GOP to advance their agenda, and bipartisan successes are unlikely.

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Gubernatorial

A. Results

As every state has the power to set the dates for its own gubernatorial elections, there were 11 different governor's races taking place on Election Night of 2024. Three of the elections had Democratic incumbents, while the other eight had Republican incumbents. Interestingly, none of the Democratic incumbents were seeking re-election—Governor Jay Inslee, Roy Cooper, and John Carney all reached and respected their respective term limits in Washington, North Caroline, and Delaware. 

With that being said, their absence was not particularly felt by the Democrats as every election went to the incumbent party. One of the closer races was a state with two new candidates: North Carolina. In former governor Roy Cooper’s absence, Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson ran against Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein. The race was mired in controversy as Mark Robinson faced multiple allegations for hateful comments and inappropriate online activity. As the controversy began mere hours before the deadline to drop out of the race, Robinson continued despite the backlash. He ended up gathering around 40% of the vote which ultimately fell to Stein’s 54%.

This margin is telling of many things – not only did North Carolina voters feel a need to distance themselves from Robinson, but they also turned out in much higher numbers for Democrats in the gubernatorial election compared to the presidential election, where Harris only carried 48% of the vote. The difference between votes for governors and presidential candidates is stark in other states too. With margins of over 10%, Vermont and New Hampshire both elected Republican governors (Phil Scott and Kelly Ayotte). 

Washington, however, stayed true to its blue image in what could have been its most important gubernatorial election in three election cycles. For the past three cycles, Democrat Jay Inslee has served as governor. As his term limit arrived, the election was key to figure out if Democrats would keep control. They did, as they defeated Republican candidate Mark Reichert by 13% after a strong campaign centered around civil and consumer rights as well as environmental action.

Outside of the mainland USA, there were two races taking place: American Samoa and Puerto Rico. These elections have teams of two running, and they go to a runoff if no team gets more than 51% of the vote, which is what happened in American Samoa. The team consisting of Lemanu P.S. Mauga and Laapui Talauega E.V Ale will compete in a runoff against the team of Pulaalii Nikolao Pula and Pulu Ae Ae, Jr.. Puerto Rico’s votes are still being counted, but the incumbent is already off the ballot after being beaten by Jenniffer Gonzalez in a primary. Gonzales and her pro-statehood party look to be in the lead so far.

Overall, the gubernatorial races not flipping any state within America displays a level of consistency seen in the American people, which starkly contrasts the volatile results from the presidential election.

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Conclusions

Despite differences in the presidential and congressional elections in some areas, Republicans generally dominated the 2024 elections. Gubernatorial elections remained similar to past years and do not forecast many changes. Trump’s reelection and accompanying GOP-majority Senate promise tax cuts, deregulation, toughness on immigration, and potential global antagonism. The next few years in America will likely be very different.

Acknowledgment

The Institute for Youth in Policy wishes to acknowledge Eli Solomon, Anagha Nagesh, Nolan Ezzet and other contributors for developing and maintaining the Policy Department within the Institute.

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