Executive summary

Continuing the “red wave” trend in the 2024 Election Cycle, Republicans now have the majority in the US Executive Branch, Judicial Branch, Senate, and House of Representatives. This majority allows Republican policymakers and politicians to face fewer issues when making their agenda. Of the 435 seats, Republicans secured 220 seats while the Democrats won 215 seats, with the Democrats gaining one seat compared to the 118th Congress.

Key Races

This section will focus on specific races that stood out this election cycle.‍

Flipped Seats

Many Democrats in New York were able to flip Republican seats. In NY-19, for example, Democrat Josh Riley unseated Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro, and in NY-22, Democrat John Mannion defeated Republican incumbent Brandon Williams. The Democrats were also able to flip a key seat in CA-13, tightening the Republican margin. Given that both of these states are historically Democratic, this indicates that the party is able to maintain their stronghold in safe states and defeat opposition in those states.

Nevertheless, Republicans were able to keep their majority, flipping a few races of their own. For example, in PA-8, Republican Rob Breshahan Jr. defeated Democrat incumbent Matt Cartwright. Combined with the results in the Presidential election, these elections may indicate a predominance of Republicans in swing states specifically. 

“Firsts” In The House

• Democrat Janelle Bynum (OR-5) will become Oregon’s first Black congress member.
• Democrat Yassamin Ansari (AZ-3) will become Arizona’s first Middle Eastern congress member.
• Democrat Sarah McBride (DE-AL) will become the first openly Transgender congress member nationwide.
• Democrat Nellie Pou (NJ-9) will become the first Latina to represent New Jersey in Congress.
• Republican Julie Fedorchak (ND-AL) will become the first woman to represent North Dakota in Congress

Analysis and Likely Effects

With regards to the other elections down the ballot, national trends, and the called race tally of 215 seats for Democrats and 220 for Republicans, lean towards a slight Republican majority in the house of representatives. With the Senate and Presidential elections already called, this gives the Republican party control over all three branches of government, including house committees, assignments, and the votes and veto power to pass their own agenda. Current house president, Mike Johnson, will likely continue to be the leader of the house, after a congenial endorsement from Donald Trump on election night. Moreover, any policy sent through the house will likely skew further right than the average member of the Republican party may prefer as, without a significant majority, Republicans will be forced to acquiesce to the desires of the hard-right or face gridlock. A mere eight Republican representatives forced previous house of representatives speaker, Kevin McCarthy, out of office, essentially dictating the mandate and direction of the party. With Donald Trump back in office, it’s likely that his desires end up dictating the policy decisions as the head of the Republican Party. Key policies that will likely pass in a Republican trifecta will dramatically impact the course of the United States over the next two years. Tax cuts for the rich, securing the border, and pushing deregulation in a myriad industries and areas will be key aspects of the Republican policy agenda, but this also depends on the number of seats acquired and the hard-right's willingness to compromise on policies. Because of this, accommodations and compromises will likely need to be made due to the close nature of the house; small factions will be able to dictate the narrative of bills and legislation passed, making compromise or the cooperation of factions necessary to pass legislation through the house.

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Conclusions

The results from the US House of Representatives race complete the Republican trifecta, allowing for President-Elect Donald Trump to more easily enact his agenda. The Republican majority is slim, however, so it is not a guarantee that all Republican-aligned bills will pass the House. A few representatives who disagree with a given bill might be enough to defeat a bill that is Republican-aligned. Thus, while the trifecta is complete, it is much less prominent in the House.

Acknowledgment

The Institute for Youth in Policy wishes to acknowledge Eli Solomon, Anagha Nagesh, Nolan Ezzet and other contributors for developing and maintaining the Policy Department within the Institute.

References

1. AP News. “Control of the US House Hangs in the Balance with Enormous Implications for Trump’s Agenda,” November 6, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/congress-elections-house-senate-harris-trump-9a38fb935f94ac1e3f5cdcef621a39ca.
2. “California’s 13th Congressional District Election, 2024.” Ballotpedia. Accessed December 9, 2024. https://ballotpedia.org/California’s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024. 
3. “Election 2024: Potential Milestones and Firsts.” Center for American Women and Politics. Accessed December 9, 2024. https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-watch/election-2024-potential-milestones-and-firsts. 
4. “New York’s 19th Congressional District Election, 2024.” Ballotpedia. Accessed December 9, 2024. https://ballotpedia.org/New_York’s_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2024. 
5. “New York’s 22nd Congressional District Election, 2024.” Ballotpedia. Accessed December 9, 2024. https://ballotpedia.org/New_York’s_22nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024. 
6. The Economist. “What a Republican Trifecta Will Mean for Governing.” November 7, 2024. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/11/07/what-a-republican-trifecta-will-mean-for-governing.

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