As Taiwan approaches its pivotal presidential election in 2024, various researchers and political commentators have been stating that the island stands at a crucial crossroads just like back in 2020. This election is in fact set to shape the future of Taiwan's domestic and foreign policy, but not in the way that one might typically perceive. Back in 2020, President Tsai Ing-wen received 57.1 percent of the total votes while the KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu received only 38.6 percent. The significant divergence in voting results can be largely attributed to the anti-extradition bill protests in Hong Kong, which ignited fears among the Taiwanese public. The perception that electing the KMT might lead Taiwan down a similar path as Hong Kong was a key factor influencing voter sentiment. In every Taiwanese election, at various levels, the consistent pattern has been that voters cast their ballots for local representatives based on party affiliation and their stance as either "Pro-China" or "Pro-Taiwan." This often overshadows considerations of the candidates' capabilities to advocate for increased funding for local infrastructure - issues that local representatives are meant to solve. This situation results in a unique aspect of Taiwanese politics, where local representatives often focus on challenging government officials of opposing parties on abstract foreign policy issues during city assembly sessions, instead of engaging in effective oversight of spending budgets. Instances like congressional representatives throwing pig guts at each other in Taiwan's congress, or local representatives quizzing officials on basic political knowledge and criticizing them for any lack of awareness, are symptomatic of this. While Taiwan's political culture is commendable in many respects, these examples highlight substantial areas for improvement. Particularly when electing presidents, there is a clear need to move away from this approach and foster a more constructive political environment.

The tendency of the Taiwanese electorate to prioritize foreign policy objectives over domestic policy differences in elections is a phenomenon often overlooked by think tanks and researchers. While not completely ignored, the emphasis that Taiwanese voters place on foreign policy issues is unparalleled in the scope of research. In Taiwan's political landscape, there's no traditional left or right dichotomy; the central divide is between pro-China and anti-China sentiments. This cause of this dynamic, referred to by the Former Taiwanese President and acknowledged as the Father of Taiwan's Democracy, Lee Tung-Hui, as the “Tragedy of Taiwan people,” highlights a situation where the people of Taiwan remains fixated on issues related to China, often at the expense of engaging in meaningful domestic policy discussions. 

This election presents an unique opportunity - as the Taiwanese public generally recognize that all three parties have a similar foreign policy stance to maintain the status quo. According to a poll in October, DPP candidate Lai Ching-te leads with about 29.7% followed by TPP candidate Ko Wen-je at 25.6% and KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih at 21.1%, and an independent businessman Terry Guo trailing quite far behind. The polls done more recently indicate a mid 30-40s for Lai and low 30s for Hou, where Ko is continuously falling off. After the single ticket negotiation to join forces between the TPP and KMT failed, the KMT remains relatively strong in terms of its performance in poll results. We see that at the heart of the election is the key issue of managing cross-Strait relations. Despite varying stances, the leading candidates advocate for a version of the “status quo” – rejecting formal independence and China’s "one country, two systems" model, while maintaining a relationship with the United States and rebuffing China’s territorial claims. Lai Ching-te of the DPP, a “former” advocate for formal Taiwanese independence, emphasizes Taiwan's de-facto independence and faces the challenge of responding to China's actions against the DPP's governance. Hou Yu-ih of the KMT advocates for dialogue and cooperation with China, while Ko Wen-je of the TPP positions himself as a centrist, emphasizing his ability to maneuver the downsides of two party politics and act as a neutral candidate, balancing relations with both the United States and China. All three are arguably inherently similar in terms of their foreign policy approach. 

From the perspective of the United States, it has long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, designed to deter both a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan and a forceful unification by China. Despite the evolving geopolitical climate and rising tensions between the U.S. and China, this policy has remained remarkably consistent. The U.S. continues to support Taiwan through arms sales and political backing, while carefully avoiding actions that would significantly alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. This steadfast approach indicates that major shifts in U.S.-Taiwan relations are unlikely, regardless of the election's outcome. People in Taiwan recognize that the status quo remains the most beneficial situation for the U.S. Consequently, this reality places a spotlight on domestic issues within Taiwan, which are likely to play a pivotal role in the upcoming election.

It is time for Taiwanese voters to shift their focus domestically, where several key issues loom large for voters. Taiwan's economy, recovering from a recession, remains a top concern, with candidates offering different perspectives on relations with mainland China and economic revival. Additionally, issues of energy security are gaining prominence. The debate over Taiwan's energy future, particularly the role of nuclear power, is an area that demands more attention and informed discussion among the electorate. The different approaches proposed by candidates regarding Taiwan's energy mix and sustainability need thorough evaluation and debate. Another topic of significant importance is the reform of military conscription. With regional security dynamics evolving, how Taiwan addresses its military service policies, including the length and nature of conscription, is vital. These discussions are not just about defense but also about national identity and commitment to Taiwan's security. The candidates' positions on these issues offer insights into their broader visions for Taiwan's future. It's essential for Taiwanese voters to focus on these vital domestic topics when casting their ballots, rather than basing their decisions solely on stereotypical views of foreign affairs.

However, it remains true that Beijing's view of the election is predominantly focused on its preference for a KMT victory, hoping to reduce tensions and advance peaceful unification. However, China remains cautious about overtly influencing the election. The significance of the election for the United States cannot be overstated, as it will shape Taiwan's foreign policy and its relations with China and the U.S. The outcome could either continue Taiwan's deepening ties with the U.S. under a DPP government or lead to an inherently shift in dynamics under a KMT or TPP victory, though the predictable changes remain small. 

The 2024 presidential election in Taiwan represents a critical turning point for shaping the political culture in Taiwan, not only for Taiwan’s domestic politics and cross-Strait relations but also by extension for the broader strategic dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region. The United States, in its role as a major player in the region, will be closely watching the outcome of the election, ready to recalibrate its policies in response to the evolving geopolitical landscape. The election outcome will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications, shaping the trajectory of cross-Strait relations and the stability of the Indo-Pacific region for years to come. Taiwanese voters are becoming more aware of the significance of domestic issues, realizing their direct and substantial effect on everyday life and the future of the island. Consequently, the way these domestic matters are tackled will play a major role in determining the selection of Taiwan's next leader. This makes the 2024 election a pivotal point for the island's internal progress and its journey towards self-determination.